Before you read this

This site records public statements made by a working journalist, tracks how those statements changed over time, and — for predictions whose stated deadline has already passed — checks what actually happened against published sources.

• Most of this is description, not judgement. A position marked as having changed, hardened or hedged is a statement about the text. Only expired predictions carry a verdict, and only where a specific outcome could settle them.
• Verdicts are sourced or they are not shown. Every one cites what it is based on, and each citation is machine-checked to confirm it exists. Where the evidence did not hold up, the claim is marked unverified rather than given a verdict.
• Being wrong about a hard prediction is not a scandal. Anyone making falsifiable forecasts about a volatile industry will get a good share of them wrong; that is the cost of saying anything specific enough to be checked. The record here is mixed, and a mixed record is the normal outcome.
• Changing your mind is normal. Commentators revise views as evidence arrives — that is the job working correctly, not a failing. This site exists to make revision legible, not to penalise it.
• Do not use this to harass anyone. Not to brigade, pile on, mass-reply, mock, or target Ed Zitron or anyone quoted here.
• Read the source. Every claim links to the original post. Quotes are short by design and drop surrounding context; go read it before drawing conclusions.